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Novel anticoagulants set to lead atrial fibrillation market

Published on 09/07/10 at 08:00am

Novel anticoagulants set to capture the atrial fibrillation market by 2019, according to a new report.

Analysts Decision Resources say the launch and uptake of novel oral anticoagulants and anti-arrhythmic agents will drive the atrial fibrillation (AF) drug market to increase more than eight-fold, from $843 million in 2009 to $6.8 billion in 2019.

Their Pharmacor 2010 report predicts Boehringer Ingelheim’s Pradaxa, Bayer/J&J’s Xarelto and BMS/Pfizer’s Apixaban will lead the sales of novel oral anticoagulants.

By 2019 novel oral anticoagulants are expected to capture nearly three-quarters of the AF drug market in the US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK and Japan.

Market growth will also be driven by Sanofi-Aventis's Multaq, which was recently approved by the EMA and given limited approval by UK cost-effectiveness body NICE in March.

In a phase III clinical trial this year, Multaq was shown to reduce rates of hospitalisation in AF patients; despite this, however, Multaq will face a number of challenges to gain traction in the market.

Decision Resources’ analyst Matthew Killeen, PhD, said: "Multaq's primary challenge will be its modest anti-arrhythmic efficacy compared with that of its main competitor, amiodarone.

"Nevertheless, we expect that Multaq's expansion into the permanent atrial fibrillation patient segment will catalyse stronger rates of uptake across all patient populations. As a result, we forecast Multaq to garner sales of more than $650 million in 2019."

Amiodarone has been the standard treatment for AF patients since its introduction in the 1950s but has been linked to a number of adverse side effects including thyroid problems, liver damage and lung damage.

The Pharmacor 2010 findings also reveal that the launch and uptake of the IV formulation of Merck & Co’s Brinavess for the acute cardio-version of AF will be particularly robust in the US where cardio-version therapy is dominated by a handful of branded products.

In Europe, the report suggests that Brinavess will face strong competition in the form of low-cost class IC agents that will constrain the drug's uptake in this region.

Ben Adams

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